Resource ledgers

Ten markets. Four grades. No vibes.

Each ledger states the common mechanism, who could pay, the binding supply constraint, the strongest caveat and the evidence that would change the grade.

AI-drivendominant, documented cause
AI-contributingone measurable factor among several
Contestedcredible evidence or measurement points both ways
Scapegoatedevidence contradicts or fails to establish the claim
SemiconductorsAI-driven

Memory (DRAM & HBM)

3:1HBM-to-DDR5 capacity trade ratio reported by Micron

AI memory is directly tightening the broader DRAM supply envelope.

Open evidence →
SemiconductorsAI-contributing

Storage (NAND & SSDs)

+30.4%BLS storage-device PPI, Jan 2024 to Jun 2026

Storage prices have turned sharply, but AI is not the only buyer in the queue.

Open evidence →
Grid equipmentAI-contributing

Transformers & Switchgear

1–2+ yrdistribution-transformer lead time in 2024

Data centers add demand to a transformer shortage they did not create.

Open evidence →
Generation equipmentAI-contributing

Gas Turbines

100 GWGE Vernova backlog plus slot reservations, Q1 2026

AI is reserving generation equipment inside a much broader power-build cycle.

Open evidence →
LaborContested

Electricians & Skilled Trades

757,220U.S. electrician jobs in May 2025

A real labor constraint, without a clean national AI wage effect yet.

Open evidence →
Local buildoutContested

Construction Inputs

No clean seriesnational AI-attributable price measure

Local competition is credible; a national materials story is not established.

Open evidence →
EnergyAI-contributing

Electricity

11.8%LBNL reference-case share of U.S. electricity in 2030

Data centers are a major new load. Your bill is still a local rate-design question.

Open evidence →
Local resourcesContested

Water

>10,000×observed workload-level water-use variation

Water use is real and intensely site-specific; prompt-level slogans are not measurements.

Open evidence →
Grid accessScapegoated

Interconnection Queue

5 yearsmedian request-to-operation time for projects built in 2023

AI did not create the five-year generation queue, but it is forcing a separate large-load reckoning.

Open evidence →
FinancingContested

Capital Markets

Not scoredmatched cost-of-capital series still required

The crowding-out story is plausible—and especially vulnerable to motivated reasoning.

Open evidence →